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Tale of Two Cities

What drives a recovering market?  In this month’s Home Value Forecast update we will focus on two cities that have been on opposite ends of our Market Rankings, and what factors have driven change.

Newark-Union, NJ-PA CBSA

newark union chart

Every month we rank 200 CBSAs on a number of market health indicators and deliver the top and bottom ten for that month.  A year ago, the Newark-Union, NJ-PA CBSA was #200 on the list.  This month they are #66.

As you can see, September 2013 has much better market fundamentals showing – almost double the sales this quarter bringing the Months of Remaining Inventory from over ten months to 6.68.  Prices are up over 5 percent from a year ago, days on market are down, and houses are selling near their listing price.  Even though the percentage of foreclosures is more than a year ago, the market is being driven by supply-demand fundamentals and they are not negatively impacting the market recovery. 

Nassau-Suffolk County, NY CBSA

nassau suffolk chart

The Nassau-Suffolk County, NY CBSA tops this month’s top 10, where dwindling inventories and a steep decline in foreclosures have led to a healthy, recovering market.  A year ago this CBSA was #199 on our list. Again, the story is inventory.  Looking at a year ago, Nassau-Suffolk had almost 19,000 active listings and 15 Months of Remaining Inventory.  This month those numbers have shrunk to 7,800 and 4.19 respectively.

Top 10 Performing CBSAs

september top 10 performing CBSAs

One CBSA to note in our top ten is Boulder, Colorado.  Earlier this month severe flooding destroyed many homes and displaced families.  The flooding will surely have an impact on the housing market, impacting inventory and demand.  We will keep an eye on the region as they recover.

Bottom 10 Performing CBSAs

september bottom 10 performing CBSAs

The bottom ten were mostly in the southeast of the country, with two Florida CBSAs making a return.  As can be seen, the story is foreclosures.  In all but one CBSA, foreclosures make up a double-digit percent of the sales – with Pensacola (37.03 percent) and Palm Bay (55.05 percent) leading the way.