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Pro Teck’s Home Value Forecast: The Real Difference Between “Hot” and Not!

Health of Housing Market Much More Than Simply Home Sales

WALTHAM, MA – June 29, 2016 – This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast examines the true meaning of a “hot housing market” — a term commonly misunderstood and chronically misused.

Too often people look to one data point to explain a trend — this is especially true in coverage of the real estate industry. Many articles look at sold price percent change as an indication of a hot market, but simply looking at this single factor isn’t enough.

“Every day there’s a new news story with a list of top performing cities — but do these cities really reflect what is going on in the real estate market?,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “We believe that a housing market’s health is made up of many factors. Much like how a doctor must look at multiple vital signs to make a diagnosis, we analyze multiple data points, track trends and use consistent methodology in our rankings.”

Just like a diagnosis can be wrong if only looking at one vital sign, let’s look at what would happen if we used just a single criteria to define “hot.” Take a look at the list below that shows the top housing markets in terms of sold price percent change:

  • Rockford, IL
  • Punta Gorda, FL
  • Port St. Lucie, FL
  • Bend-Redmond, OR
  • Palm Bay-Melbrourne-Titusville, FL
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
  • Boulder, CO
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA
  • Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
  • Greeley, CO

A closer look at these “hot” communities shows that each is actually in drastically different stages of recovery. Of the ten, five markets are “soft” according to our market condition ranking, while five are either “strong” or “hot.”

Taking the multiple data points into account, here’s what the actual top ten “hot” housing markets would look like:

  • Colorado Springs, CO
  • Boise City, ID
  • Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
  • Modesto, CA
  • Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA
  • Ogden-Clearfield, UT
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
  • Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA

Visit our HVF Update to read the entire forecast, including a closer look at a few communities that on the surface appear to be “hot”, but when taking the multiple factors into account are certainly not.

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

Top 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Colorado Springs, CO
  • Boise City, ID
  • Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
  • Modesto, CA
  • Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA
  • Ogden-Clearfield, UT
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
  • Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA

Western states are dominating our top ten list, with limited inventory leading to quick sales and high sales price to list price ratios. In fact, the lowest SP to LP ratio was Grand Rapids at 99.35% — all others were at or above 100%.

Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Killeen-Temple, TX
  • Peoria, IL
  • Clarksville, TN-KY
  • Midland, TX
  • Madison, WI
  • Jackson, MI
  • Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
  • Gary, IN
  • Jacksonville, NC
  • Flint, MI

The bottom ten has some familiar metros, including Midland, Madison and Atlantic City.

Atlantic City is experiencing city management issues, which when combined with a decline in gaming revenue, is beginning to take a toll on real estate prices. An uptick in REO sales to numbers not seen since the financial crisis leaves us pessimistic to the health of Atlantic City’s real estate market for the foreseeable future.

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

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Media Contact:  Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or thoff@protk.com

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