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Home Value Forecast: Lack of Inventory Leading to Hot Market Conditions

29 metros tracked by Home Value Forecast receive highest score possible, fueled by inventory.

WALTHAM, MA – October 26, 2015 – Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) October update takes a look at the impact inventory has had on the real estate market. Also, HVF’s top and bottom market rankings for the month are updated.

In running its Top Ten methodology for the month, HVF recorded that 29 CBSAs tracked received their highest raw score possible, compared to zero a year ago.

The 29 CBSAs all have less than four Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) – indicative of a seller’s market. Also, all 29 have seen double-digit percent decreases in active listings, signifying that the phenomenon will not be changing anytime soon.

Twenty-one of the 29 are west of the Rockies. Some, like Punta Gorda, Florida are still years away from matching pre-crash price highs while others, like San Jose, California are making new record highs each month.

“While new housing units are on the upswing, the numbers are still at historical lows,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “That, combined with approximately 2.5 million single family homes becoming rental units since the crash has left the U.S. with a limited housing supply.”

29 Hottest Markets With Their Months of Remaining Inventory:

  • Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA – 3.83
  • Bellingham, WA – 2.50
  • Boise City, ID – 2.63
  • Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC – 3.96
  • Chico, CA – 3.72
  • Durham-Chapel Hill, NC – 3.89
  • Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI – 3.51
  • Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN – 3.61
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA – 3.78
  • Medford, OR – 3.68
  • Modesto, CA – 2.52
  • Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA – 2.83
  • Oak Harbor, WA – 2.80
  • Olympia-Tumwater, WA – 2.78
  • Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA – 3.66
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ – 3.39
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA – 2.41
  • Punta Gorda, FL – 3.93
  • Raleigh, NC – 3.27
  • Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA – 2.21
  • Salinas, CA – 3.66
  • Salt Lake City, UT – 3.45
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX – 3.04
  • San Diego-Carlsbad, CA – 2.22
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA – 1.84
  • Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA – 1.86
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA – 2.54
  • Vallejo-Fairfield, CA – 2.37
  • Wichita, KS – 3.16

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio, foreclosure percentage and REO activity.

“For the Top Ten we used, MRI has the tie-breaker,” said O’Grady. “All 10 are west, with six California, three Washington state and one Idaho CBSA”

September’s top CBSAs include:

  • Bellingham, WA
  • Boise City, ID
  • Modesto, CA
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
  • Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade,
  • San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
  • Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA
  • Vallejo-Fairfield, CA

“There are no communities ranked “distressed” this month, with only Atlantic City and Jacksonville, NC hitting our “weak” level because of the percentage of foreclosure sales. In Midland, TX you can see the swift impact changes in the oil industry can have. With many oil rigs idle, families are moving out. A 169% increase in active home listings and 207% increase in MRI are just two example of how quickly change can come.”

The bottom CBSAs for September were:

  • Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
  • Huntsville, AL
  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
  • Midland, TX
  • Muskegon, MI
  • Racine, WI
  • Santa Fe, NM
  • York-Hanover, PA
  • Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
  • Jacksonville, NC

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data, down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs, are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

About Pro Teck Valuation Services

Pro Teck Valuation Services is a national provider of residential real estate valuations. For more than 30 years, we have worked with lenders, loan servicers and investors to improve risk management through superior real estate collateral information. Pro Teck offers a comprehensive suite of services including real estate data and analytics, field valuations, review/due diligence and appraisals. Please visit us at www.proteckservices.com.

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Media Contact: Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or thoff@protk.com

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