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Pro Teck’s Home Value Forecast: Lack of Housing Inventory to Impact Spring Buying Season

April 25, 2017, WALTHAM, MA – This month’s Pro Teck Valuation Services Home Value Forecast examines the health of the nation’s housing inventory — particularly what the noticeable lack of available housing could mean for homes sales in the coming months.

Home Value Forecast looks at inventory through the lens of Months Remaining Inventory (MRI), which is defined as the current number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate. It combines both supply and demand into one number, giving a more holistic view of the state of the market. Traditionally, a balanced market would have an MRI between six and 10 months.

According to recent data, two years ago the weighted average for the more than 200 metros tracked by Home Value Forecast was 7.87. A year ago that number was 6.89. Today it is 5.90. This represents a 14.4% drop in MRI from last year, and a full 25% drop in the last two years.

“The lack of inventory is very real and could have a severe impact on home sales in the months to come,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck. “Traditionally, a balanced market would have an MRI between six and 10 months. This month, only eight metros we track have MRIs over 10, compared to 27 last year and 48 two years ago – illustrating that this lack of inventory is not being driven by traditionally ‘hot’ markets, but is rather a broad-based, national phenomenon.”

Click here to read the entire forecast, including data and graphs that further highlight market trends discussed in this release.

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

Top 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Mount Vernon–Anacortes, WA
  • Bremerton–Silverdale, WA
  • Portland–South Portland, ME
  • Omaha–Council Bluffs, NE-IA
  • Nashville–Davidson–Murfreesboro­–Franklin, TN
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA
  • Colorado Spring, CO
  • Stockton–Lodi, CA
  • Seattle–Bellevue–Everett, WAOnce again this month, the Top Ten is all about supply, with all 10 seeing a decrease in active homes on the market and a reduction in MRI. Seattle has a dire need for more single-family homes, as supply has not kept up with demand, leading to limited inventory (1.75 MRI) and increasing prices.Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:
    • Las Cruces, NM
    • Mobile, AL
    • Huntsville, AL
    • Virginia Beach–Norfolk–Newport News, VA-NC
    • Miami–Miami Beach–Kendall, FL
    • Chicago–Naperville–Arlington Heights, IL
    • Shreveport–Bossier City, LA
    • Killeen–Temple, TX
    • McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, TX
    • Scranton–Wilkes-Barre­–Hazleton, PA

    The Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, PA CBSA is in our bottom 10 this month, as higher foreclosures and longer days on market stall any significant price gains. The area lost a considerable number of jobs post housing crisis, and while some job growth has happened, home prices have been relatively flat over the last ten years.

    About Home Value Forecast

    Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

    HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

    Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

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    Media Contact: Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
    781-314-1669 or tom.hoff@protk.com