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Pro Teck’s Home Value Forecast: East Coast CBSA Cracks Top Ten List

WALTHAM, MA – This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast explores the relationship between market fundamentals and a healthy housing market — particularly in “The Research Triangle” area of North Carolina.

As the only East Coast representative on this month’s Home Value Forecast’s list of top ten CBSAs, the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro boasts a number of positive attributes that allow its housing market to thrive — namely the presence of a nearby university system and the high tech, medical and banking industry companies that have moved into the area to employ the skilled graduates.

“There’s a reason why the Research Triangle is known as the land of tees, trees and PhDs” said “Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “In years past one would have to move to the Northeast to find high tech careers. Today, companies have moved to where employees can enjoy all that comes with living in the North Carolina countryside.”

The Durham-Chapel Hill CBSA real estate market has been driven by market fundamentals, and didn’t experience the violent swings in price others did during the crash. When looking at home price versus employment for the area, both track each other nicely, with no “bubble” in price that can’t be explained. The same correlation can be seen in household income and home price price per square foot.

“Looking at the data, one can see the Durham-Chapel Hill CBSA is a healthy market driven by classic supply and demand fundamentals,” said O’Grady. “In contrast, one can look at the “bubble” in home prices in Miami from 2003-2007 that didn’t have a corresponding increase in employment — that’s when the trouble starts.”

Click here to read the entire forecast, including graphs that further highlight each of the market fundamentals explained in this release.

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

Top 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Yuba City, CA
  • Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
  • Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
  • Colorado Springs, CO
  • Eugene, OR
  • Vallejo-Fairfield, CA
  • Olympia-Tumwater, WA
  • Modesto, CA
  • Stockton-Lodi, CA
  • Fresno, CA

Yuba City, forty miles north of Sacramento, was hit hard by the housing crisis — with REO Sales as a percentage of total sales peeking over 60% in 2008.

Today, that number is down to 4.43%, well within historic norms. Today, Yuba has a very limited housing supply, with only 2.5 Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI). With such limited supply, prices should continue to rise.

Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
  • Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
  • Huntsville, AL
  • Midland, TX
  • Madison, WI
  • Gary, IN
  • Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
  • Jackson, MI
  • Jacksonville, NC
  • Flint, MI

In Atlantic City, home prices are down more than 12% from last year and foreclosure sales as a percentage of total sales is high (44.87%) and growing — not a good sign for the future.

Fortunately, the PILOT rescue bill recently passed by the New Jersey Legislature calling for the casinos to pay $120 million annually for 10 years should help stabilize the city’s finances and keep it from filing for bankruptcy.

We will keep an eye on home prices and hopefully have some positive news for Atlantic City in the months ahead.

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

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Media Contact: Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or thoff@protk.com

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