The Impact Sale Prices and Affordability Have on a Supposed Housing Bubble
December 20, 2016, WALTHAM, MA – This month’s Pro Teck Valuation Services Home Value Forecast examines whether the growing demand in California’s most expensive communities will lead to a housing bubble in the New Year.
According to end of year housing data, the three California metros: San Francisco, San Rafael and San Jose, top the list of higher current sales price for the third straight year. A closer look at appreciation in these three metros sheds some light on the situation.
San Francisco’s home price appreciation in 2015 was 12.62%. In 2016 this slowed to 7.88%. San Rafael and San Jose had even more of a slowdown, with both going from 12% in 2015 to in the 2% range for 2016.
With these prices and year over year appreciation, pundits question whether there is a “bubble” on the horizon for any of these communities. Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services, says one must look at affordability in each community to better answer this question.
“Salary increases have kept affordability closer to historic norms, not “bubble” territory of 2005-2007,” said O’Grady. “Tight credit policy and low interest rates post-crash mean that the majority of loans that have been written since 2008 are of high quality and less likely to default. For these reasons, we do not believe that a “bubble” is imminent.”
Click here to read the entire forecast, including graphs that further highlight market trends discussed in this release.
CBSA Winners and Losers
Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.
Top 10 CBSAs this month include:
- Colorado Springs, CO
- Mount Vernon, Anacortes, WA
- Olympia–Turnwater, WA
- Tacoma–Lakewood, WA
- Visalia–Porterville, CA
- Washington–Arlington–Alexandria, DC-VA-MD
- Raleigh, NC
- Indianapolis–Carmel–Anderson, IN
- Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA
- Kansas City, MO-KS
Our top ten this month is led by Washington State with five metros represented. In all ten the story is the lack of inventory — with active listings down anywhere from 9% to 61%.
Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:
- Lake County–Kenosha County, IL-WI
- Harrisburg–Carlisle, PA
- Syracuse, NY
- Huntington–Ashland, WV-KY-OH
- El Paso, TX
- Killeen–Temple, TX
- Miami–Miami Beach–Kendall, FL
- Port St. Lucie, FL
- McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, TX
- Detroit–Dearborn–Livonia, MI
Our bottom CBSAs feature a sampling from around the country, three from energy producing areas of Texas and two from Florida metros.
OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries have stated that they are going to cut oil production, which should help U.S. producers. Twenty-one U.S. oil rigs were added the first week of December, bringing the total to ~500 — a far cry from the 1,600 in 2014. As more come back on line we should see these Texas communities clear up.
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.
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Media Contact: Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or firstname.lastname@example.org