CBSA WINNERS AND LOSERS
Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.
The ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as will be an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by adding the directional scores of each of its indicators. From the universe of the top 200 CBSAs, we highlight each month the CBSAs which have the highest and lowest composite scores.
The tables below show the individual market indicators that are being used to rank the CBSAs, along with the most recent values and the percent changes. We have color-coded each of the indicators to help visualize whether it is moving in a positive (green) or negative (red) direction.
Home Value Forecast Top Ten CBSAs:
While the top ten has been dominated by the west for the past few years, this month four are from the East Coast – showing a broader recovery. All ten are showing tight inventory, with 30+ percent reductions in active listings and all under four Months of Remaining Inventory.
Home Value Forecast Bottom Ten CBSAs:
Energy communities can be seen in the bottom 10 this month: with three CBSAs from oil producing areas in Texas; two coal producing areas in Ohio/Pennsylvania and West Virginia/Kentucky; and refinery/distribution CBSAs in Alabama and Indiana.
Energy prices were up two percent last week, with U.S. crude hitting a 15 months high. Oil prices are up 15 percent since OPEC announced that as of November they will enforce its first output cut since 2008. We expect this should help bring relief to some of these communities.
All real estate is local, and what’s happening at the ZIP level is not always consistent with CBSA trends. For this month we look at communities in the Syracuse, NY CBSA. The graph below shows the average home price for the CBSA versus two ZIP codes within the CBSA:
This is an interesting graph. For ZIP code 13080, Jordan, NY, the impact of the housing crisis was swift, with foreclosures as a percentage of regular sales hitting 20 percent by Q1 in 2009, driving sales prices down. ZIP 13104, Manlius, NY, also felt the effects of the housing crisis, but the reaction took longer. While each ZIP was going through ups and downs, the overall CBSA has had prices stay relatively steady over the last eight years.
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service.
Also, Pro Teck Valuation Services offers reporters the following:
- National, regional or metro level housing data
- Monthly Updates and HVF Insights articles
- By-request data for your story — custom data, heat maps and charts are available
- Expert commentary from Home Value Forecast Editorial Committee:
- Tom O’Grady, Chief Executive Officer, Pro Teck Valuation Services
- Michael Sklarz, PH.D., President, Collateral Analytics
- Jeff Dickstein, Chief Compliance Officer, Pro Teck Valuation Services