Home Value Forecast examines importance of looking at more than just price appreciation; update includes new top and bottom rankings for the month
WALTHAM, MA – August 20, 2015 – Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) August update analyzes the top US housing markets based on year-over-year price percent changes and finds that Detroit, MI topped the list with a 28 percent increase of sold price change. Others included in the list were Palm Bay, FL; Port St. Lucie, FL; Merced, CA; and, San Francisco, CA. However, the authors believe that it’s important to look at more than just one indicator when evaluating the health of a real estate market. Also, HVF’s top and bottom market rankings for the month are updated.
“While Detroit has seen healthy gains this year, the Home Value Forecast rating system shows that Detroit is still a soft market,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Although examining one indicator is helpful, it’s important to analyze several home price indicators to best understand the health of a real estate market.”
This month’s HVF update also looked at the Collateral Analytics forecast for those top markets and found that San Francisco home prices are at an all-time high while Detroit is still trying to return to pre-crash levels. In Home Value Forecast’s rating system Detroit’s market is considered “soft” while San Francisco is “strong.”
They also noted that that while recent gains have been encouraging in Port St. Lucie, homes are still selling at 30 percent below previous highs. Combined with foreclosure sales at more than three times post-crash levels, Port St. Lucie has a “soft” market condition rating.
This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure percentage and REO activity.
“The West Coast continues to dominate the top ten markets, with the exception of San Antonio,” said O’Grady. “Also, looking at our top three for the month using Collateral Analytics Forecast, we see Bellingham, Cheyenne and Mt. Vernon, WA at or near all-time highs with forecasted continuing appreciation.”
July’s top CBSAs include:
- Bellingham, WA
- Cheyenne, WA
- Mt. Vernon-Anacortes, WA
- Olympia-Turnwater, WA
- Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
- Santa Rosa, CA
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
- Stockton, CA
“Syracuse, Scranton and McAllen, Texas join the bottom ten list this month,” said O’Grady. “Interestingly, MRI ranges from 3.18 in Jacksonville to over 17 in Atlantic City. Our bottom three metros, Jacksonville, FL, Jacksonville, NC and Rockford, IL also show a different story. All are not expected to appreciate significantly over the next five years, leaving those that purchased at or near highs a cloudy picture as to when they might be able to make a profit on a sale.”
The bottom CBSAs for July were:
- Huntsville, AL
- Syracuse, NY
- Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazleton, PA
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
- Jacksonville, FL
- Jacksonville, NC
- Rockford, IL
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.
Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to firstname.lastname@example.org.
A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting. The term “CBSA” refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas. Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.
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