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Press Release: Amount of Available Housing in U.S. Continuing to Decline

Year-over-Year Analysis Shows Dramatic Shortage of Homes for Sale

January 24, 2017, WALTHAM, MA – This month’s Pro Teck Valuation Services Home Value Forecast examines how Months of Remaining Inventory in the U.S. has continued to decline over the past several years — most notably in places like Dallas and Fort Worth, TX.

Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) is defined as the current number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate. It combines both supply and demand into one number, giving a more holistic view of the state of the market. Traditionally, a balanced market would have an MRI of around 6 months.

Comparing MRI from December 2016 to a year ago brings this phenomenon into focus. According to this data, communities with an MRI under 3 have jumped from 12.7% to 20.63% in a year — a 62.44% increase.

Two years earlier in December 2014, this number was 9.17%, meaning there’s been a 125% increase communities with a dramatic shortage of homes for sale in a two-year period.

“At Home Value Forecast, we’ve written about it often – how the drop in housing starts post-crisis made inventory scarce, which as a result led to low Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) and fierce competition for homes on the market,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “As an example, both Dallas and Fort Worth, TX has seen over a 40% decline in MRI to under 3, with homes in Dallas between 1,500 and 1.999 square feet in size having a current MRI of only 1.08”

Click here to read the entire forecast, including data and graphs that further highlight market trends discussed in this release.

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

Top 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Colorado Springs, CO
  • Nashville–Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN
  • Olympia–Tumwater, WA
  • Spokane–Spokane Valley, WA
  • Seattle–Bellevue–Everett, WA
  • Dallas–Plano–Irving, TX
  • Fort Worth–Arlington, TX
  • Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA
  • Tacoma–Lakewood, WA
  • Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

The Texas CBSAs of Dallas and Fort Worth both show up in the Top 10 list this month, boasting 55 and 53 Sold Days on Market — the lowest two in the Top 10. Furthermore, all of the CBSAs featured in the Top Ten show a drop in Active Listings – something to be expected this time of year. This number will likely increase as the spring buying season approaches.

real-estate-market-trends-january-20177

Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:

  • Miami–Miami Beach–Kendall, FL
  • Huntington–Ashland, WV-KY-OH
  • Jacksonville, NC
  • Kingsport–Bristol, TN-VA
  • El Paso, TX
  • Killeen–Temple, TX
  • McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, TX
  • Midland, TX
  • Longview, TX
  • Las Cruces, NM

For the Bottom 10, Active Listings are also down, except for four Texas metros (Killeen, McAllen, Midland and Longview), which to date have been severely impacted by the downturn in oil prices. Currently the Texas oil rig count is at 325, up from 301 last year. If the numbers in Texas continue to increase, the communities hardest hit could see some relief.

real-estate-market-trends-january-20178

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

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Media Contact:  Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or tom.hoff@protk.com

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