Monthly update reviews trends in residential real estate over the past 12 months
WALTHAM, MA – This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) takes a look at trends in a number of residential real estate categories over the past twelve months. HVF examines the top three CBSAs in Current Sales Price, Twelve Month Active List Price Appreciation, Current Months of Remaining Inventory and Twelve Month Sales Price Appreciation. It also looks back at the “Top Three” from last year to see how they are performing today.
Current Sale Price
The same three California metros: San Francisco, San Rafael and San Jose, top this list in 2014 and 2015. California CBSAs accounted for thirteen of the top fifteen spots in this category, with Honolulu, HI (number four) and Vineyard Haven, MA (number seven) rounding out the rest of the list.
“Last year we forecasted that San Francisco’s home prices would start to stabilize – that did not happen as average sold price is now over $1.2 million,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “One reason for this was that interest rates have stayed at historic lows, making homes more affordable at all price points. With interest rate increases anticipated in the near future, we will keep an eye on the impact on 2016 home prices.”
Twelve-Month Active List Price Appreciation
“Active price” is the median price a home is listing for at a moment in time. College Station-Bryan, TX, led this year with an the active price change of 46.32%.
“An influx of professionals working in the Research Valley biocorridor has strained the housing stock and changed the type, size and cost of new housing,” said O’Grady. “This trend should only continue as Texas A&M and the community drive advancements in the biotherapeutic and biopharmaceutical industries.”
Current Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI)
MRI is another indicator that shows how “hot” a market is at a particular time. MRI equals the amount of households on the market divided by the number that sell per month.
“If an area has a high MRI (10 months), it means that the market is saturated — a buyer’s market,” said O’Grady. “If MRI is low (below 3 months) then it becomes a seller’s market.”
Today, the top three markets are West Coast, all around two months inventory – leading to fierce competition for homes and many selling for above asking price.
Two of the leaders in 2014, San Jose (2.03) and Santa Cruz (2.93), remained hot markets in 2015. In all, 24 CBSAs have less than three months of inventory, leading to limited housing supply and fueling price increases.
Twelve-Month Sales Price Appreciation
Sales price appreciation is a good thing, but the statistic by itself can be deceiving. The top three CBSAs all had more than 20% appreciation for the year, yet all were heavily impacted by the housing crisis.
“What these numbers reflect is that the market has responded to the bargains that are out there, and that the housing market has begun to reflect supply/demand fundamentals,” said O’Grady. “Our top three are now seeing steady appreciation as they recover.”
Of the 200 markets tracked at Home Value Forecast, 44 had greater than 10% appreciation this year, and only five had a negative change of more than 5%.
CBSA Winners and Losers
This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
This month’s Top 10 CBSAs include:
- Bellingham, WA
- Bend-Redmond, OR
- Boise City, ID
- Boulder, CO
- Eugene, OR
- Oak Harbor, WA
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Stockton-Lodi, CA
- Stockton-Lodi, CA
“Our top ten have been fairly consistent, as limited supply and low interest rates continue to push these markets. This list will change if we see an increase in interest rates early in 2016,” said O’Grady.
This month’s Bottom 10 CBSAs include:
- Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL
- Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
- Joplin, MO
- Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
- Midland, TX
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
- Jacksonville, NC
About Home Value Forecast
Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data, down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs, are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.
Media Contact: Thomas Hoff, Pro Teck Valuation Services
781-314-1669 or firstname.lastname@example.org