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Nassau and Suffolk Counties Shine Bright in New York

3-17-14: Due to a sourced (third party) data error, foreclosure numbers for some Florida and Colorado CBSAs were inflated in our original story.  This error has been researched and corrected by the data provider. 

The story now includes the updated foreclosure numbers. 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Nassau and Suffolk counties have the 10th and 26th highest median household incomes in the nation.  Nassau County is also the third-richest county per capita in New York State and the 30th richest in the nation.

This month, the Nassau-Suffolk CBSA (Long Island) leads our ranking as the hottest real estate market in the nation.  Many factors have gone into this assessment, including foreclosures making up an inconsequential 2.18 percent of sales and available housing inventory at only 3.63 months – both attributes of a strong market.  Looking at our extended forecast for the area, we see Nassau-Suffolk reaching peak highs again within five years.

nassau county housing market forecast

Comparing Long Island to our bottom CBSA this month, Jacksonville, FL, brings it all into focus.  While Long Island had less than 3 percent of its sales as foreclosures, Jacksonville is experiencing 43.6 percent of its sales as foreclosures.

Looking at the five year forecast, Jacksonville’s prices are not expected to get anywhere near its 2007 peak.  Foreclosures will continue to hamper the market from returning to true market fundamentals for the foreseeable future.

Jacksonville fl housing market forecast

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs to highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

The ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends.  Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series.  For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as will be an increasing trend in average price.  A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators.  From the universe of the top 200 CBSAs, we highlight each month the CBSAs which have the highest and lowest composite scores.

The tables below show the individual market indicators that are being used to rank the CBSAs along with the most recent values and the percent changes.  We have color coded each of the indicators to help visualize whether it is moving in a positive (green) or negative (red) direction.

Top 10 CBSAs  

january-housing-market-top-ten

California is again well represented, with six of our top 10 metros from the state.  The Los Angeles market has seen a major shift, with sale prices up over 24 percent from the last rolling quarter.

Bottom 10 CBSAs

January 2014 Bottom 10 CBSAs

As we’ve discussed, it’s hard to sustain a market turnaround with high numbers of foreclosure sales.  All our entrants in the bottom 10 have over 25 percent of all sales being foreclosure sales.  Add to that bloated inventory numbers, Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) up to 19 months, and it may be some time before we see the market recovering.

Jacksonville MRI is at 5.16 – usually indicative of a stable market.  This goes to show that investors and individuals are aware of the bargains in the area and are buying up homes.

Finally, Grand Junction, CO has made the bottom 10, last month was Pueblo, CO.  Both areas were hit hard by flooding in September, 2013.  In all, more than 18,000 homes were damaged and 2,000 destroyed by the flooding.