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Home Value Forecast: Market Time Averages Reveal Dramatic Differences Between Best and Worst CBSAs

In each Home Value Forecast we rank the 10 top and bottom real estate markets in the United States. This month, we look at market time averages on both sides of the market.

In the “CBSA Winners and Losers” section we will provide details on each of the 20 markets. To show the overall trend, however, we’ve calculated averages to show the dramatic differences in market times.

Sold days on market for the top 10 has a weighted average of 45.5 days versus 77.3 days for the bottom 10 – a 70% difference. Active days on market show an even larger disparity, from 34 days in the top 10 to 70.9 for the bottom 10 – a full 109% difference.

So what does this mean for these markets and most importantly, buyers? In the top 10 markets there’s a clear shortage in supply – with active listings now being less than the rolling total of the last three months of sales shown above. Less supply means more competition and shorter days on market before a sale.

In the bottom 10, you could say it’s a buyers market — with more supply, homes are staying on the market longer.

CBSA Winners and Losers

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to rank the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs and highlight the strongest and weakest metros.

The ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as will be an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators. From the universe of the top 200 CBSAs, each month we highlight the CBSAs which have the highest and lowest composite scores.

The tables below show the individual market indicators that are being used to rank the CBSAs, along with the most recent values and the percent changes. We have color-coded each of the indicators to help visualize whether it is moving in a positive (green) or negative (red) direction.

Top 10 CBSAs

The Boise, Idaho CBSA makes its way into our top 10 this month. The below graph shows Boise’s median home sale price and employment, and clearly shows the bubble of 2005 – 2008.  As employment has rebounded, so have prices. Affordability is back to pre-crash norms, and hopefully will stay that way through the recovery.

Bottom 10 CBSAs

Shreveport, LA is at the other end of the price – employment spectrum. Shreveport has been losing jobs over the last six years, while home prices continue to increase. Sold prices are flat from a year ago, and active price change is at 1.28% — showing that the market is in the process of correcting itself.

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service.

Also, Pro Teck Valuation Services offers reporters the following:

  • National, regional or metro level housing data
  • Monthly updates and HVF insights articles
  • By-request data for your story — custom data, heat maps and charts are available
  • Expert commentary from Home Value Forecast Editorial Committee:
    • Tom O’Grady, Chief Executive Officer, Pro Teck Valuation Services
    • Michael Sklarz, PH.D., President, Collateral Analytics
    • Jeff Dickstein, Chief Compliance Officer, Pro Teck Valuation Services