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Home Value Forecast Top 10, October 2021

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to monitor single-family home market activity in the nation’s top 200+ metropolitan areas (CBSAs) and report on the Top 10.


The Home Value Forecast Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends over the past eight quarters. It’s not a listing of what markets are most expensive or most in need of inventory; it ranks market momentum at a specific point in time.

This month’s Top 10 again is topped by five Washington state metros:

Chart of the home value forecast for October 2021

Some say that the real estate market is starting to cool. However, our data doesn’t reflect that yet.

  • Like the past two months, 225 of the 229 metros we track had a sales price to list price ratio of 100% or more.
  • A balanced housing market typically equates to an MRI (Months of Remaining Inventory) of six, while a “seller’s market” equates to 6 months supply and under. Today, 227 of the 229 metros we track are under 6 months supply.

Top 10 Sale Price CBSAs
Nationally, home prices are up approximately 15% from last year, with nine metros averaging over $1 million. Of the nine, seven are in California:

 CBSA Name  Sold Price
 San Francisco-Redwood City-Soutn San Francisco, CA $1,825,000
 San Rafael, CA $1,700,000
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $1,580,000
Vineyard Haven, MA $1,525,000
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, VA $1,170,000
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA $1,100,000
Urban Honolulu, HI $1,075,000
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA $1,060,000
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA $1,053,500


The Home Value Forecast uses a ranking system that is purely objective and is based on directional trends of market indicators. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as would an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators.

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