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Home Value Forecast Top 10, May 2022: There’s No Place Like Homosassa Springs

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to monitor single-family home market activity in the nation’s top 200+ metropolitan areas (CBSAs) and report on the Top 10. 


The Home Value Forecast Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends over the past eight quarters. It’s not a listing of what markets are most expensive or most in need of inventory; rather, it ranks market momentum at a specific point in time.

This month’s Top 10:



Homosassa Springs, FL

This is the second month in a row that Homosassa Springs has cracked our Top 10. Looking at median price and employment statistics, things were tracking consistently until Q4 2017, when price rapidly appreciated.


Looking at the affordability index tells the same story. Affordability is derived by looking at the median income for a particular area as a ratio to the mortgage payment needed to purchase a median priced home. An index score above 100 signifies that a household earning the median income has enough income to afford the mortgage. Lower scores suggest more income is needed to cover mortgage expenses.

For Homosassa Spring, affordability is dropping to lows not seen since the “bubble years” of 2005-2008:


Interest rates should slow appreciation, but affordability will continue to suffer in this environment.


The Home Value Forecast uses a ranking system that is purely objective and is based on directional trends of market indicators. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as would an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators.