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Home Value Forecast Top 10, March 2022: Mixed Signals Indicate an Increasingly Volatile Market

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to monitor single-family home market activity in the nation’s top 200+ metropolitan areas (CBSAs) and report on the Top 10.


The Home Value Forecast Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends over the past eight quarters. It’s not a listing of what markets are most expensive or most in need of inventory; it ranks market momentum at a specific point in time.

This month’s Top 10:

March Top 10
Inventory is still a problem in our Top 10, with Months or Remaining Inventory (MRI) between 1.54 and 2.63, well below a “balanced market” average of six to eight months.

Mixed Signals

While our Top 10 are still doing well, there are some mixed signals in the numbers:

  • Four had fewer sales than the same rolling three months last year.
  • Four have had an increase in foreclosure percentage.
  • Two have had an increase in days on market.

Rising interest rates, the end of foreclosure moratoriums and growing inflation are all starting to impact home sales.

  • A year ago, 136 of the 229 CBSAs we track had more sales than the previous year, today only 19 are outpacing the year prior.
  • A year ago, 60 CBSAs had a foreclosure percent of total sales above 5%, today there are 120.

The Home Value Forecast uses a ranking system that is purely objective and is based on directional trends of market indicators. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as would an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators.