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Home Value Forecast Top 10, February 2022

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to monitor single-family home market activity in the nation’s top 200+ metropolitan areas (CBSAs) and report on the Top 10.

THE TOP 10

The Home Value Forecast Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets ranking system is purely objective and is based on directional trends over the past eight quarters. It’s not a listing of what markets are most expensive or most in need of inventory; it ranks market momentum at a specific point in time.

This month’s Top 10:

ProTeck_HVF_Top10_Feb2022
Tulsa joined Oklahoma City, OK in the Top 10 this month. And with only one entry each from the states of Washington, California and Colorado this month, there are a number of different metros represented from across the US.

Leading price appreciation was the Provo, UT CBSA, where average sold price jumped almost 30% from this time last year:

ProTeck_HVF_Median Price_Provo_2022

This is leading to affordability in the area dropping to levels not seen since the time of the housing crisis 15 years ago:

ProTeck_HVF_Provo_Feb 2022
Affordability is derived by looking at the median income for a particular area as a ratio to the mortgage payment needed to purchase a median priced home. An index score above 100 signifies that a household earning the median income has enough income to afford the mortgage. Lower scores suggest more income is needed to cover mortgage expenses. The Collateral Analytics Affordability Index used by Home Value Forecast also looks at loan-to-value norms for a particular area to adjust for more affluent buyers usually putting more money down.

While Provo is flirting with a 100 index, its nowhere near San Francisco (currently 48) or other high-priced metros.

ABOUT PRO TECK’S MONTHLY HOUSING MARKET REPORT
The Home Value Forecast uses a ranking system that is purely objective and is based on directional trends of market indicators. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as would an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators.

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