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Valuation Blog 1.22.2015
Home Value Forecast Explores Housing Progress in New Year; Western States Still Leading the Pack

Authors take deeper dive at CA and FL metros; Cambridge, MA is east coast outlier in top ten; FL metros continue to lag the housing market recovery

WALTHAM, MA – January 22, 2015 – Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) monthly ranking of single-family home markets across the U.S. explores how metro areas are progressing as we enter 2015. With December’s HVF data, the authors also take a deeper dive at a metro in Florida versus one in California and find that even with economic similarities they are each recovering differently from the housing crisis.

The Home Value Forecast’s ranking system is purely objective and is based on the directional trends of nine housing indicators, including listing count, price change, months of remaining inventory, days on market and foreclosures.

The results of this month’s HVF strikingly contrasted the progress made by California markets with the problems some Florida markets still face. Two examples—San Diego and Orlando—illustrate the different paths these markets have taken since they both suffered floods of foreclosures five years ago.

“With populations of 1.3 million and 2.1 million, San Diego and Orlando are mid-sized cities that enjoy large and stable sources of employment,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Prices are appreciating in both markets, though San Diego has surpassed its prior peak while Orlando is only halfway back.”

HVF reported that the two markets differ in a more important way that positions them at opposite ends of the December Home Value Forecast ranking. REO sales flooded the San Diego market, peaking in 2008, but they have declined steadily and almost have returned to pre-crash levels (below 5%).

“REOs as a percentage of sales also peaked in 2009 and declined in Orlando, but never to pre-crash norms of under 5%. The last two years they’ve actually been on the increase, averaging more than 20%,” added O’Grady. “In addition, Orlando’s speed of recovery has been slowed down because Florida is a judicial state, adding more time to the process.”

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators cited above.

“December’s ranking confirmed the domination of Western markets during 2014. Eight of the ten top markets are west of the Mississippi,” O’Grady said. “Rounding out the list are two cities home to large universities, Cambridge, MA and Lafayette, IN. With steady employment and growing demand for more housing for faculty, students and professionals, these markets are seeing values rise.”

December’s top CBSAs include:

  • Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
  • Cheyenne, WY
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
  • San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA
  • Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN
  • Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA
  • Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
  • Oakland-Haywood-Berkeley, CA
  • San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

“Unfortunately, many of the bottom ten markets are still struggling with the aftermath of the housing crisis and they trail the nation in the pace of their recovery,” added O’Grady. “These include: Akron in Ohio, and Daytona Beach, Lakeland, Orlando, Palm Bay and Tampa in Florida. Both Florida and Ohio are judicial states.”

The bottom CBSAs for December were:

  • Akron, OH
  • Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
  • Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
  • Jacksonville, NC
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
  • Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
  • Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
  • Tallahassee, FL
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
  • Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

Editor’s Note:

A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting. The term “CBSA” refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas. Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.

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Media Contact: Janice Daue Walker, JD Walker Communications, LLC
781-290-6528 or jdwalker@jdwalkercommunications.com