Join our Partner Network Pricing & Product Inquiries

Pro Teck Insights

  • Subscribe Via Email

Double Dip, Triple Dip or Neither? Debunking the Thought of National Housing Trends

Home Value Forecast Monthly Market Update

When we hear about a “double dip” or even a “triple dip” in the real estate market, we have to wonder what housing market is being referred to. The November update on Home Value Forecast addresses the issue of taking a national view of the real estate market.

Looking at nationwide trends in the real estate market is an impracticable concept at best and can be misleading. A more informative view is to look at the performance of current median home prices for ZIP codes around the country relative to their most recent peak values on a per square foot of living area basis.

The Overall U.S. number, derived from the Case Shiller Composite U.S. Home Price Index, shows the decline has been 31.5%, which is similar to numbers based on the NAR Median Home Price.  This value is reasonable, however when presented as a nationwide housing market, the inference is that all homes are down this much from their peaks – this is just not true.

Unfortunately, many lenders, investors, analysts and homeowners end up interpreting the numbers as such.  In fact, only 35% of the individual ZIP codes have experienced declines of 31.5% or more.

With regard to CBSA level prices, in virtually all major metros prices hit bottom in early 2009 and have been moving sideways for the past two years.  We are not sure what is meant by a “double” or “triple dip” but our feeling is that home prices will be bouncing around current levels for at least the next year.

Click here to review the full report and charts from Home Value Forecast.

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast was created from a strategic partnership between Pro Teck Valuation Services and Collateral Analytics and provides insights into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market.

HVF is built using numerous data sources including public records, local market MLS and general economic data.  The top 750 CBSAs as well as ZIP code level data for 18,000 ZIPs are available with a subscription to the service.  A trial subscription is available upon request.  Please visit the Contact Us page to reserve your trial.

To learn how Pro Teck and Collateral Analytics can help your company with its valuation needs, please call 800.886.4949 or email sales@protk.com.