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Valuation Blog 1.30.2012
Distressed Real Estate Inventory; The Drain is Still Clogged

January’s Home Value Forecast highlights new metric for understanding distressed real estate inventory including contrasting examples from Southern California and downstate New York; top and bottom performing CBSAs are revealed with a deep dive into Tucson, AZ

Pro Teck Valuation Service’s Home Value Forecast explores variations from one state to another in the distressed real estate inventory and how this affects the path to recovery and the “new normal” for the housing market.

The monthly update also includes new data on top and bottom performing CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) nationwide. In addition, January’s Home Value Forecast provides a closer look at significant differences in the Tucson, AZ real estate market conditions and corresponding home price performance within individual ZIP codes.

“Despite the clog in some markets with a widespread shadow inventory of housing, 2012 has seen a number of improving economic indicators which include positive statistics from the housing market,” said Tom O’Grady, President and CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “These include an increase in sales activity and a significant decline in the inventory of homes for sale. Home Value Forecast sees home prices in a sideways mode for the coming year with more significant increases in future years since new construction has been running at only half the rate of long term demographic demand.”

This month’s “Lessons from the Data” highlight new metrics developed by Home Value Forecast and Collateral Analytics. A new leading indicator has proven particularly useful in predicting both the timing and the magnitude of the home price declines which have occurred in the nation’s real estate markets since the peak in 2005-2006. This measure of the distressed inventory provides an opportunity to focus upon its two main drivers: the rate of new foreclosures and the rate of exit from the inventory via Real Estate Owned (REO) sales. The authors plot the annual average number of new foreclosures among the four California counties and the four New York counties.

As part of its monthly update, Home Value Forecast developed a CBSA level real estate market ranking system. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst performing metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market based indicators including average active market time, average listing price, number of foreclosure sales, number of active listings, number of new listings, average sold price, and number of sales.

January’s top CBSAs included a number of Florida communities including: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Lakeland, North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Port St. Lucie, Punta Gorda, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. Other top CBSA’s included: Dayton, OH; Syracuse, NY; and Wilmington, NC.

The bottom CBSAs for January were: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX; Bellingham, WA; Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Huntsville, AL; Las Vegas-Paradise, NV; Lewiston-Auburn, ME; Reno-Sparks, NV; Spokane, WA; Toledo, OH; and Tucson, AZ.

Home Value Forecast’s unique micro market data provides timely and comprehensive information on sales, listings and off-market activity for 90% of the U.S. housing stock. This data has enabled us to provide home price indexing, forecasting and market analytics from a national, regional and ZIP/neighborhood level perspective.

This month’s newsletter also features a comparison of real estate market conditions between the Tucson, AZ CBSA and a ZIP code within it – highlighting the fact that all real estate is local. To read the full update, including Lessons from the Data, check out Home Value Forecast.

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast was created from a strategic partnership between Pro Teck Valuation Services and Collateral Analytics. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

Each month Home Value Forecast delivers a monthly briefing along with “Lessons from the Data,” an in-depth article based on trends unearthed in the data. HVF is built using numerous data sources including public records, local market MLS and gene ral economic data.

The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a subscription to the service. A trial subscription is available upon request. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products visit us at

Contact: Janice Walker, JD Walker Communications, LLC – 781-290-6528 or