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Analyzing Multiple Indicators Vital to Determining the Health of a Real Estate Market According to Pro Teck’s Home Value Forecast

Pro Teck discusses scoring methodology, the impact of foreclosure and the Florida market; Washington State and California metros continue to top monthly ranking

WALTHAM, MA – February 19, 2015 – This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) update includes an alternative scoring model of U.S. housing markets without the impact of foreclosure sales in the ranking of single-family home markets across the U.S. The authors take a deeper dive into Florida markets and find that without the foreclosure penalty, the markets are showing many improving signs, including steady increases in pricing with reduced months of remaining housing inventory. Pro Teck’s HVF finds that while some indicators might show a “hot” market, these metros are still suffering because of the foreclosure drag impacting the recovery.

In this month’s update, the authors point out that an important part of HVF ranking system is the number of foreclosure sales in an area (as a percentage of regular sales). Based on research, “tipping points” have been discovered when the foreclosure rate reaches pre-defined levels and drive the market.

“Pro Teck’s Home Value Forecast believes it is vital to examine many housing indicators and not rely on one indicator, such as price, when analyzing the health of a housing market,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Also, in some markets, no matter how ‘hot’ other indicators are, the foreclosure percentage will drive the overall health of the market.”

The Florida markets have consistently been in HVF’s bottom ten rankings due the number of foreclosure sales. The authors thought it would be interesting to analyze how the markets would rank if they took out the impact of foreclosure from their algorithm. They tracked 17 Florida metros (CBSAs) and compared the HVF’s market condition grade, which goes from weak to strong, with and without the foreclosure effect.

“Looking at the communities marked ‘strong’ without the foreclosure score, including Fort Myers, Daytona Beach, Sarasota, Punta Gorda and Melbourne, all have had significant drops in active listings and months of remaining inventory (MRI), and increases in sold price,” added O’Grady. “These communities will only grow stronger as foreclosures slowly return to pre-crisis levels.”

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators cited above.

In this month’s update, the authors look at the top and bottom ten markets using its standard ranking methodology then again taking out the “foreclosure penalty” to see the difference, and discuss some metros where many factors show a “hot” market, but the foreclosure drag is still impacting the recovery.

“California and Washington State markets account for six of our top ten this month – a continuing trend at HVF,” said O’Grady. “All of our top ten have fewer than 4 months of inventory and dramatic decreases in inventory, making it a seller’s market.”

January’s top CBSAs include:

  • Bellingham, WA
  • Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN
  • Cheyenne, WY
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
  • Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
  • Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA
  • Portland-Vancouver-Hillsborough, OR-WA
  • San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
  • San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA
  • Vallejo-Fairfield, CA

“Without foreclosure penalty, the Florida markets move out of the bottom ten with the exception of Tallahassee and the bottom markets shift to smaller, more rural areas, where MRI shows a slow moving real estate market where the buyer has the control,” added O’Grady. “However, with the foreclosure percentage, Florida markets continue to remain in our bottom ten ranking.”

The bottom CBSAs for January were:

  • Jacksonville, NC
  • Akron, OH
  • Jacksonville, FL
  • Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
  • Rockford, IL
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
  • Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
  • Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
  • Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
  • Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com. You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

Editor’s Note:

A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting. The term “CBSA” refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas. Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.

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Media Contact: Janice Daue Walker, JD Walker Communications, LLC
781-290-6528 or jdwalker@jdwalkercommunications.com