Join our Partner Network Pricing & Product Inquiries

Pro Teck Insights

  • Subscribe Via Email

Valuation Blog 12.23.2014
2014 Year in Review – Home Value Forecast

Naples, Port. St. Lucie and Detroit markets top the active price appreciation list; California has lowest levels of monthly remaining housing inventory.

WALTHAM, MA – December 18, 2014 – Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast (HVF) looks back at the housing indicators over the last year in a number of residential real estate categories.  These include current sales price, twelve-month active list price appreciation, current months of remaining inventory (MRI) and twelve-month sales appreciation. This month’s update examines the top three markets for these indicators over the past year. In addition, new top and bottom metro areas are reported for the month. 

As part of its this month’s update, Home Value Forecast reported that the top three markets with twelve-month active price appreciation were Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL at 59.39%; Port St. Lucie, FL at 37.52%; and, Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI at 35.77%.

“The good news is that markets that were hit hard by the housing crash are leading this list in 2014,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.  “Active price is the median price a home is listing for a moment in time.  It’s a good reflection of the health of a market because it takes into account people’s perceptions as to where prices are headed.”

MRI is another indicator that shows how “hot” a market is at a particular time. MRI equals the amount of households on the market divided by the number that sell per month.  If an area has a high MRI (10 months), it means that the market is saturated — a buyer’s market. If the MRI is low (less than 3 months) then it becomes a seller’s market.

“Today, the top three markets are in California, all with less than two months inventory — leading to fierce competition for homes and many selling for above asking price,” said O’Grady.  “Those California markets are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA at 1.67 MRI; San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA at 1.74 MRI; and, Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA at 1.89 MRI.

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model.  The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis.  They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.

“Wrapping up the year, San Francisco and San Rafael, CA as well as Seattle, WA were each featured in the top ten for six months of the year,” O’Grady said.  “Houston, San Antonio and Lubbock, TX also had strong indicators and were featured in the top ten five times throughout the year.”

November’s top CBSAs include:

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA

Modesto, CA

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

Salinas, CA

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

San Rafael, CA

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN

“Taking a look over the last year, Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL has been listed in the bottom 10 eight times. Also, Jacksonville, NC and Tampa, FL metro areas have been included in the bottom ten in seven months of the year. Tampa and Lakeland have seen their indicators improve, especially MRI,” added O’Grady. “However, Jacksonville, NC’s MRI has increased to 22.24 indicating it is still a weak market and has a ways to go in terms of housing recovery.”

The bottom CBSAs for November were:

Akron, OH

Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

Jacksonville, NC

Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Tallahassee, FL

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services.  HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources.  The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service.  To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com.  You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to mediarequest@protk.com.

Editor’s Note:

A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting.  The term “CBSA” refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas.  Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.

Media Contact:  Janice Daue Walker, JD Walker Communications, LLC
781-290-6528 or jdwalker@jdwalkercommunications.com